Sunday, 15 May 2016

Vultures circling



Panama papers scandal is getting new turns with each passing day. Imran khan's political ambitions, undemocratic agenda of section of the media and military interests may all be relevant in this fiasco. But Nawaz handling of this issue in foggy style is a grave mistake. He has not presented himself before scrutiny unlike his contemporary leaders in the world. In current scenario, game is set to oust PM. The options few options which may  in spur such results. They are:

1- Vote of no confidence against PM
But this outcome is highly unlikely in the backdrop of 18 amendment which bars Member of assembly's vote of no confidence against their own party. While this way an ouster is virtually impossible but suppose a PML-N MNA votes against PM, it would be contested by MNA's in assembly who voted in favor of PM but the constitutional validity of such a vote will need Supreme court's ratification. In the meanwhile whole nation will know the unpopularity of PM in the house before any such decision is made which will reap dividends for Opposition's cause. Although wooing PML-N MNA'S might be easier than having all the opposition vote against PM.
2- Imran Khan factor
Imran khan has to turn towards the street power option and kick PM out by engineering extremely well managed protests which must be on the pretext of 'Go nawaz Go' and greater in magnitude from october 2011 phenomena.
3- Raheel option
Raheel may ask PM to step down in country's interest.
4- Same NA different PM or NA only elections
What are nawaz options?
1- Call early elections
Nawaz can call early elections and hope people will steer him back in the power for 4th term
2- Play martyr card
Nawaz has the option to annoy Army and PTI to do something unconstitutional and take him out of the power. This kind of move has the potential to backfire on aggressor parties and play into PML-N's favor.
Although Panama papers developments in pakistan may be related to Imran's power hunger, Army's dream of capitalizing on weak government or undemocratic agenda of some sections of media, but most importantly its Nawaz himself who is to blame for all the mess by hiding behind his actors and not taking bold steps to present himself and his family for scrutiny.

Source:  http://www.dawn.com/news/1258389/vultures-circling

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