By: Furqan Khattak
“Water will be the reason for third world war; as
water will become serious source of conflict that will lead to wars between the
nations.” (Boutros-Boutros
Ghalia, Former secretary general of the United Nations)
Water
is the most important element on earth and covers two thirds of its surface and
sustains life on earth. The threat of water scarcity is even a bigger problem
than terrorism across Pakistan which requires the world to empathize with an
imminent danger of a humanitarian crisis in the future to come with growing
rate of population. One study suggests that Pakistan’s population will reach
300 million or more by 2050, which may require enhanced water provision and
resources to cater the population. India being an upper riparian plans to build
dams on western rivers awarded to Pakistan under Indus Water Treaty presents an
existential challenge to Pakistan.
According
to a UNDP report on water scarcity in south Asia notes:
“It is
likely that Pakistan may dry up by as early as 2025.”
Thus, the world’s fourth largest water
consumer is facing worst ever crises of water shortage in the future. Water is
a basic human necessity and its absence will invite human catastrophe in the
thickly populated country that has the capability to eclipse other issues. This
paper analyzes the reasons of water crisis in Pakistan, geopolitics and Present
situation while suggesting recommendations to mitigate the problem.
In-Sufficient Water Storages:
The
comparison of global water storage capacity reinforces the need for Pakistan to
build new dams because it lacks the surplus water storage capability to sustain
in the days of droughts. The list of few countries with Pakistan regarding
water storage capacity is given below:
Country Storage Capacity (in
Million Acre-Feet MAF)
- Canada 694 MAF
- U.S.A. 1420 MAF
- China 2280 MAF
- India 245 MAF
· Pakistan 16.12 MAF (due to silting up of Reservoirs.)
Current Water
Storage Capacity of Pakistan: Pakistan’s
current water storage capacity can be ascertained from the following factual
representation. These are:
Name of the Dam Storage Capacity (Million Acre-Feet MAF)
- Warsak 0.0495 MAF
- Rawal 0.0475 MAF
- Mangla 5.6000 MAF
- Tarbella 10.2000 MAF
- Khan pur 0.0590 MAF
- Tanda 0.0788 MAF
- Hub 0.0924 MAF
Priority: Pakistan’s
answer to its two most acute problems i.e. water and power lies in building
small, medium and large dams. Some of the most prominent projects are being
listed with the capacity and priority below:
Priority Name of the Dam Estimated Cost Power Potential Water Storage Capacity
1 Katzara 12- 15 billion dollars 15000 35 million acre feet
2 Dassu Dam 9 billion dollars 4320 11.4 million acre feet
3 Diamer- Bhasha 14
billion dollars 4500 8.5 million acre feet
4 Kalabagh 7 billion dollars 3600 6.1 million acre feet
5 Munda 1.4 billion dollars 700 1.29 million acre feet
6 Akhori 1.6 billion dollars 600 7.6 million acre feet
National Water Policy: Pakistan
reached another milestone in April when consensus was reached over the national
water policy. This policy was espoused for almost a decade but faced obstacles
from different circles. However, finally, the provinces agreed as certain
reservations were ironed out. The
impressive documents mandates the future course of action with increase in the
capacity from current level of 14 MAF by initiating the Diamer Bhasha Dam with
immediate effect. Furthermore, the provincial rights over surplus water and
environmental protection clauses were included in the comprehensive document.
The document includes other important aspects such as:
- Water uses and allocation of priorities
- Integrated planning for development
- Use of water resources
- Environmental integrity of the basin
- Impact of climate change
- Trans-boundary water sharing
- Irrigated and rain-fed agriculture
- Drinking water and sanitation
- Ground water
- Water rights and obligations
- Sustainable water infrastructure
- Water-related hazards
- Quality management
- Awareness and research
- Conservation measures
- Capacity building of water sector institutions
The need of the hour is to implement this document in letter
and spirit with determination and focus. This document contains all the basis
covered and can become the backbone of Pakistan’s progressive water policies
for future.
Indus Water Treaty:
Indus Water Treaty is a 56 year old agreement that gives exclusive rights over
three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej and its tributaries) to India while
the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab and its tributaries) are given to
Pakistan with 20 percent exclusive water rights on western rivers by India
without diverting the flow of water. The IWT was brokered by the World Bank
(WB) and it was guarantor to this agreement and bilateral problems concerning
the Indus water treaty must be resolved under the auspices of International
Court of Arbitration.
India
as an Upper Riparian State: India is an upper riparian state
which gives it a natural advantage over Pakistan due to its geographic location.
Cashing this natural advantage, India has repeatedly threatened Pakistan by
choking the flow of water. Deliberations on aggressive options like allowing
excessive water flows into Pakistani channels to flood the country is also
being considered “to teach Pakistan a lesson”. The use of water as a weapon is
forbidden under international laws. According to
Justin Rowlatt in BBC article, India’s proposed hydropower projects will have a
devastating effect on Pakistan because Jhelum river is a vital source of
irrigation, subsequently, damaging Pakistan’s economy which has seen an upward
tragectory in the recent past. Water is a basic human necessity while using the
resouce as a strategic tool to undermine its neighbors is highly reprehensible
while denying the rights of Pakistan has far-reaching
implications.
According to one of the leading expert on South Asia’s water
issues late john Briscoe, if India builds several massive hydropower dams, it
may cost Pakistan a month of river flow which means one planting season can be
ruined which amounts to massive economic and social burden on already stressed
Pakistan economy.
Present
Situation: Pakistan is extremely water stressed country
according to National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) while informing the
participants of 13th annual meeting of the Regional Consultative Committee
(RCC). According to the report by
International Monetary Fund, Pakistan has drastically declined from 5,300 cubic
metre in 1947 to less than 1,000 CUM in 2016. The standard storage capacity is
100 days however, Pakistan’s storage capacity has dropped to 30 days which is
alarming. Pakistan is also an agrarian economy therefore using water as a
weapon can prove to be devastating for over 210 million people. Pakistan may
face nutrition crisis and starvation of colossal degree.
Due to the construction
of Kishanganga Dam, it is feared that Pakistan’s Neelum Jhelum power project
will also be affected.
According to famous
expert Patrick Gleick:
"As water shortages become more acute beyond
the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increasingly be used as
leverage; the use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives will
become more likely beyond 10 years."
India has already begun to turn Glieck’s future prediction
into present reality.
International
Legal Perspective: United Nation’s
Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International
Watercourses was adopted by the General Assembly on May 21,
1997. The Article 5 of UN Convention unequivocally articulates a
principle that a state sharing water course with neighboring countries due to
be an upper riparian, shall utilize the watercourse in a way which may not
undermine the fair right to use water by the other states.
Furthermore, Helsinki Rules 1966, states that
“Each
Basin State is entitled, within its territory, to a reasonable and equitable
share in the beneficial uses of the waters of an international drainage basin.”
Hence,
Under Helsinki Rules, UN Conventions, and
International Law, it is evident that
India cannot divert the course of rivers to the detriment of Pakistan, owing to
its upper riparian advantage.
Role of World Bank:
Pakistan has approached World Bank regarding two controversial Indian
hydropower projects on Chenab River i.e. Kishanganga, Baglihar and Ratli[1]
being built in contravention of IWT, However, World Bank has decided to pause
the arbitration encouraging both sides to seek alternative ways of dealing with
the issue. Pakistan’s ex- advisor to PM on foreign Affairs Mr.Sartaj Aziz was
quoted as saying that India is using dilatory tactics on these issues by
claiming that further amendments are impossible.
Afghanistan:
India plans to build 12 dams on river Kabul, which will adversely impact
Pakistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan share nine rivers while river Kabul is
amounts to 18.5 MAF. Kabul is aligning its policies in line with India’s
strategic interests. This policy will seriously impact the relations between
two neighboring countries. However, on a positive note, both countries are also
discussing a treaty on Kabul river basin which will govern the flow of water.
Project Storage Capacity Cost
·
Haijana
project (72MW) 178,420 acres feet $72 million
·
Kajab
Project (15MW) 324,400 acres feet $207 million
·
Tangi
Wadag (56MW) 283,850 acres feet $356 million
·
Gat
(86MW) 405,500 acres feet $51million
·
Sarobi
project (210MW) 324,400 acres feet of water $442 million
·
Laghman
project (1251MW) 233,568 acres feet $1.434 billion
Possible Military Repercussions
due to Water Crisis (India and Pakistan)
It
is evident that neither country can revoke the IWT unilaterally. India’s move
to revoke this treaty may evoke a strong response from Pakistan. It is not in
the interest of both countries to violate such an important treaty which has
endured the hard times such as wars and bilateral standoffs. Pakistan may not
have any other chance but to launch a military offensive. The burden will be
laid on India for threatening the survival of 200 million people. Jammu and
Kashmir is said to be the nuclear flashpoint of South Asia. Therefore, India’s
action may trigger nuclear warfare. Pakistan has the capability to conduct
limited operations and try to gain control of the strategic locations as a last
resort. This conflict has all the ingredients of destabilizing the whole South
Asia region. Pakistan may have an option of conducting surgical strikes on
canals and Dams in Indian-Occupied Kashmir in order to ensure the free flow of
water downstream, however, it is worth mentioning that such an attack may evoke
a reciprocal response from India and preparations may have to be done in
advance to shield the already built reservoirs which has the capacity to store
only 30 days of water.
Map
of the Brahmaputra’s origin from Tibet, China
China’s Role:
China may slow the flow of Brahmaputra which could devastate the agriculture of
poor but productive northeastern Indian states, Assam and others. Pakistan may
reach to its trusted and close ally China to attain the support on grounds of
reciprocity of interests. Chinese intervention on humanitarian basis may
complicate matter for India. Furthermore, if India tries to punish its
downstream neighbor, it may give a dangerous pretext to China, which is upper
riparian to India’s Brahmaputra River and both countries does not share any
Trans-boundary water agreement.
India’s Current Capability to Choke
Water: India is allowed to use 20 percent of the water
allotted to Pakistan under Indus Water Treaty, while India is under obligation
not to construct big hydropower projects. However, India has violated the
treaty with the construction of dams and hydropower projects such as
Kishenganga, Wullar, Sawalkot dam[2]
and Baglihar. It is important to note that currently, India does not have the
capacity to completely choke Pakistan water while it needs 10-15 years to build
the amount of dams for doing so. Executing options other than this means India
may risk flooding Jammu and Kashmir and Indian Punjab which produces 20 percent
of the grain for India and is called the “breadbasket of India”. India is also
prospecting to restart Tulbul water navigation project which has the capability
to divert water to a city in Indian-Occupied Kashmir which may affect water
flow downstream to Pakistan. Pakistan’s former advisor to PM Mr Sartaj Aziz
stated that revocation of IWT will be considered as an act of war and a hostile
action against Pakistan.
Kashmiri Militant Narrative:
The narrative of Kashmiri militant outfits and their sympathizers in Pakistan
may be emboldened. Potential extremist elements may also portray the Indian
aggression as its victory and augment its recruitment drive.
Reconsidering Kashmir Policy:
It is important to mention that Pakistan may also be inclined to reconsider its
Kashmir policy and move into offensive mode. Guerilla warfare may be intensified
as a means of asymmetric warfare. Pakistani state will also not shy away from
striking back at India through different overt and covert measures.
Russia:
Russia may refrain from active involvement in this escalation. India will have
to deal with International pressure for triggering a disaster of massive
proportions by stopping the flow of water to 210 million people on political
grounds.
India’s Neighboring Countries:
Nepal and Bangladesh will be insecure due to Indian approach as some voices are
also echoing inside India to divert their share of water for India’s
consumption. A dangerous precedent will be set through this policy of using
water as a weapon.
Recommendations
Regarding the Conservation of Water
To
efficiently conserve water from different sources, following few
recommendations must be introspected, such as:
·
We have to ascertain the total amount of
rainfall in millimeters and the duration of rainfall in hours.
- We need to know about the Agricultural Products which includes the types of crops and water consumption. Furthermore, we have to have the knowledge of horticultural Products (Types of Fruits and Water Consumption) and the kind of forestation (Types of Trees and Water Consumption).
- Conscious work need to be done river flows such as Upstream (Width, Speed and Flow), Midstream (Width, Speed and Flow) and Downstream (Width Speed and Flow).
- By converting some canals from concave to trapezoid to produce 1-2 megawatts of additional power.
- We need to have good knowledge of Pre-monsoon season; depth of water level and check history records and Post-monsoon season; depletion of water in 90 days after end of monsoons
- The water conservation authorities must be well informed about groundwater level such as number of operational wells and number of wells being dug in the vicinity.
- Integrated Flood Control Systems needs to be operationalized to mitigate the natural disasters of floods.
- Prevention of water crisis is not only the responsibility of the Government, but also the general public. Today many countries have adopted policy of harvesting rainwater as a national policy. Equipment for this purpose is not taxable. We need to look beyond our nose and develop vision to save and store rain and flood waters. Flood waters can be controlled and directed underground reservoirs through bio-pores. Rooftops of homes are used as collectors from where water is directed into conduits and poured into surface water tanks using filters to prevent debris from entering the tanks. Once the tanks are filled, the rest of the water is directed into underground permeable tanks.
- By harvesting rainwater we can overcome our deficiency in surface water and help in reducing the decline of groundwater levels, improvement in the availability of ground water for crop development and help in improving the quality by dilution. Furthermore, it will increase horticulture production through improved groundwater.
- Pakistan is an agricultural country as seventy percent of population is directly associated with provision of water. Out of 80 million hectares (Mha) area in the country, only 29.6 million hectares is suitable for agriculture. 13.3 (Mha) is canal irrigated while 3.5 (Mha) is rain fed. To ensure the food security, it is imperative to manage the water resources efficiently.
- Hydrological cycle determines the flow of water through the system. Pakistan’s forest cover has decreased over the decades. According to the UN report, 7000 to 9000 hectares of jungle is removed yearly while the total forest cover has been diminished to 5 percent of the total land mass. Therefore, forest cover must be enhanced with afforestation drives by emulating projects such as billion tree tsunami by the outgoing provincial Government of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa.
- Pakistan must change its cropping patterns and aware the farmers about the suitability of crops in certain regions. To implement this idea, one can allocate zones for certain crops which could prove to be appropriate for the terrain while also saves water. Farming methods must be revamped so as to lessen the possibility of the wastage of water during various steps.
- New housing societies must be obligated to build their own small water reservoirs to save water.
- Due to decades-old planning processes and hectic approval mechanism as well as execution of the projects, many projects never see the light of the day. Hence, it is highly imperative to seek innovative financing solutions for main storage and hydropower projects.
