Water Crisis: A Catastrophe in the Making and Possible Trigger to Military Conflicts in South Asia

By: Furqan Khattak

“Water will be the reason for third world war; as water will become serious source of conflict that will lead to wars between the nations.”   (Boutros-Boutros Ghalia, Former secretary general of the United Nations)

Water is the most important element on earth and covers two thirds of its surface and sustains life on earth. The threat of water scarcity is even a bigger problem than terrorism across Pakistan which requires the world to empathize with an imminent danger of a humanitarian crisis in the future to come with growing rate of population. One study suggests that Pakistan’s population will reach 300 million or more by 2050, which may require enhanced water provision and resources to cater the population. India being an upper riparian plans to build dams on western rivers awarded to Pakistan under Indus Water Treaty presents an existential challenge to Pakistan. 

According to a UNDP report on water scarcity in south Asia notes:

“It is likely that Pakistan may dry up by as early as 2025.”

Thus, the world’s fourth largest water consumer is facing worst ever crises of water shortage in the future. Water is a basic human necessity and its absence will invite human catastrophe in the thickly populated country that has the capability to eclipse other issues. This paper analyzes the reasons of water crisis in Pakistan, geopolitics and Present situation while suggesting recommendations to mitigate the problem.

In-Sufficient Water Storages: The comparison of global water storage capacity reinforces the need for Pakistan to build new dams because it lacks the surplus water storage capability to sustain in the days of droughts. The list of few countries with Pakistan regarding water storage capacity is given below:

        

       Country                                                                Storage Capacity (in Million Acre-Feet MAF)

•      Canada                                                                         694 MAF
•      U.S.A.                                                                         1420 MAF
•      China                                                                           2280 MAF
•      India                                                                            245 MAF

·       Pakistan                                                                        16.12 MAF (due to silting up of Reservoirs.)

Current Water Storage Capacity of Pakistan: Pakistan’s current water storage capacity can be ascertained from the following factual representation. These are:

Name of the Dam                                              Storage Capacity (Million Acre-Feet MAF)

•          Warsak                                                                           0.0495 MAF
•          Rawal                                                                             0.0475 MAF
•          Mangla                                                                           5.6000 MAF
•          Tarbella                                                                          10.2000 MAF
•          Khan pur                                                                         0.0590 MAF
•          Tanda                                                                              0.0788 MAF
•          Hub                                                                                   0.0924 MAF

Priority: Pakistan’s answer to its two most acute problems i.e. water and power lies in building small, medium and large dams. Some of the most prominent projects are being listed with the capacity and priority below:

Priority      Name of the Dam             Estimated Cost                       Power Potential            Water Storage Capacity 

1              Katzara                      12- 15 billion dollars           15000                      35 million acre feet

2              Dassu Dam                   9 billion dollars                 4320                       11.4 million acre feet

3              Diamer- Bhasha           14 billion dollars                 4500                      8.5 million acre feet

4              Kalabagh                      7 billion dollars                   3600                      6.1 million acre feet

5              Munda                          1.4 billion dollars                700                        1.29 million acre feet

6              Akhori                           1.6 billion dollars               600                        7.6 million acre feet

National Water Policy: Pakistan reached another milestone in April when consensus was reached over the national water policy. This policy was espoused for almost a decade but faced obstacles from different circles. However, finally, the provinces agreed as certain reservations were ironed out. The impressive documents mandates the future course of action with increase in the capacity from current level of 14 MAF by initiating the Diamer Bhasha Dam with immediate effect. Furthermore, the provincial rights over surplus water and environmental protection clauses were included in the comprehensive document. The document includes other important aspects such as:

•       Water uses and allocation of priorities
•        Integrated planning for development
•        Use of water resources
•     Environmental integrity of the basin
•        Impact of climate change
•       Trans-boundary water sharing
•      Irrigated and rain-fed agriculture
•       Drinking water and sanitation
•       Ground water
•       Water rights and obligations
•        Sustainable water infrastructure
•      Water-related hazards
•      Quality management
•       Awareness and research
•      Conservation measures
•     Capacity building of water sector institutions

The need of the hour is to implement this document in letter and spirit with determination and focus. This document contains all the basis covered and can become the backbone of Pakistan’s progressive water policies for future.

             

Indus Water Treaty: Indus Water Treaty is a 56 year old agreement that gives exclusive rights over three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej and its tributaries) to India while the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab and its tributaries) are given to Pakistan with 20 percent exclusive water rights on western rivers by India without diverting the flow of water. The IWT was brokered by the World Bank (WB) and it was guarantor to this agreement and bilateral problems concerning the Indus water treaty must be resolved under the auspices of International Court of Arbitration.

India as an Upper Riparian State: India is an upper riparian state which gives it a natural advantage over Pakistan due to its geographic location. Cashing this natural advantage, India has repeatedly threatened Pakistan by choking the flow of water. Deliberations on aggressive options like allowing excessive water flows into Pakistani channels to flood the country is also being considered “to teach Pakistan a lesson”. The use of water as a weapon is forbidden under international laws. According to Justin Rowlatt in BBC article, India’s proposed hydropower projects will have a devastating effect on Pakistan because Jhelum river is a vital source of irrigation, subsequently, damaging Pakistan’s economy which has seen an upward tragectory in the recent past. Water is a basic human necessity while using the resouce as a strategic tool to undermine its neighbors is highly reprehensible while denying the rights of Pakistan has far-reaching implications.

According to one of the leading expert on South Asia’s water issues late john Briscoe, if India builds several massive hydropower dams, it may cost Pakistan a month of river flow which means one planting season can be ruined which amounts to massive economic and social burden on already stressed Pakistan economy.

Present Situation: Pakistan is extremely water stressed country according to National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) while informing the participants of 13th annual meeting of the Regional Consultative Committee (RCC).  According to the report by International Monetary Fund, Pakistan has drastically declined from 5,300 cubic metre in 1947 to less than 1,000 CUM in 2016. The standard storage capacity is 100 days however, Pakistan’s storage capacity has dropped to 30 days which is alarming. Pakistan is also an agrarian economy therefore using water as a weapon can prove to be devastating for over 210 million people. Pakistan may face nutrition crisis and starvation of colossal degree.

Due to the construction of Kishanganga Dam, it is feared that Pakistan’s Neelum Jhelum power project will also be affected.

According to famous expert Patrick Gleick:

"As water shortages become more acute beyond the next 10 years, water in shared basins will increasingly be used as leverage; the use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives will become more likely beyond 10 years."

India has already begun to turn Glieck’s future prediction into present reality.

International Legal Perspective: United Nation’s Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses was adopted by the General Assembly on May 21, 1997. The Article 5 of UN Convention unequivocally articulates a principle that a state sharing water course with neighboring countries due to be an upper riparian, shall utilize the watercourse in a way which may not undermine the fair right to use water by the other states.

Furthermore, Helsinki Rules 1966, states that

“Each Basin State is entitled, within its territory, to a reasonable and equitable share in the beneficial uses of the waters of an international drainage basin.”

Hence, Under Helsinki Rules, UN Conventions, and International Law, it is evident that India cannot divert the course of rivers to the detriment of Pakistan, owing to its upper riparian advantage.

Role of World Bank: Pakistan has approached World Bank regarding two controversial Indian hydropower projects on Chenab River i.e. Kishanganga, Baglihar and Ratli[1] being built in contravention of IWT, However, World Bank has decided to pause the arbitration encouraging both sides to seek alternative ways of dealing with the issue. Pakistan’s ex- advisor to PM on foreign Affairs Mr.Sartaj Aziz was quoted as saying that India is using dilatory tactics on these issues by claiming that further amendments are impossible.

Afghanistan: India plans to build 12 dams on river Kabul, which will adversely impact Pakistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan share nine rivers while river Kabul is amounts to 18.5 MAF. Kabul is aligning its policies in line with India’s strategic interests. This policy will seriously impact the relations between two neighboring countries. However, on a positive note, both countries are also discussing a treaty on Kabul river basin which will govern the flow of water.

Project                                        Storage Capacity                         Cost

·         Haijana project (72MW)              178,420 acres feet                            $72 million

·         Kajab Project (15MW)                 324,400 acres feet                             $207 million

·         Tangi Wadag (56MW)                 283,850 acres feet                            $356 million

·         Gat (86MW)                                405,500 acres feet                            $51million

·         Sarobi project (210MW)              324,400 acres feet of water            $442 million

·         Laghman project (1251MW)       233,568 acres feet                           $1.434 billion

Possible Military Repercussions due to Water Crisis (India and Pakistan)

It is evident that neither country can revoke the IWT unilaterally. India’s move to revoke this treaty may evoke a strong response from Pakistan. It is not in the interest of both countries to violate such an important treaty which has endured the hard times such as wars and bilateral standoffs. Pakistan may not have any other chance but to launch a military offensive. The burden will be laid on India for threatening the survival of 200 million people. Jammu and Kashmir is said to be the nuclear flashpoint of South Asia. Therefore, India’s action may trigger nuclear warfare. Pakistan has the capability to conduct limited operations and try to gain control of the strategic locations as a last resort. This conflict has all the ingredients of destabilizing the whole South Asia region. Pakistan may have an option of conducting surgical strikes on canals and Dams in Indian-Occupied Kashmir in order to ensure the free flow of water downstream, however, it is worth mentioning that such an attack may evoke a reciprocal response from India and preparations may have to be done in advance to shield the already built reservoirs which has the capacity to store only 30 days of water.

Map of the Brahmaputra’s origin from Tibet, China

China’s Role: China may slow the flow of Brahmaputra which could devastate the agriculture of poor but productive northeastern Indian states, Assam and others. Pakistan may reach to its trusted and close ally China to attain the support on grounds of reciprocity of interests. Chinese intervention on humanitarian basis may complicate matter for India. Furthermore, if India tries to punish its downstream neighbor, it may give a dangerous pretext to China, which is upper riparian to India’s Brahmaputra River and both countries does not share any Trans-boundary water agreement.

India’s Current Capability to Choke Water: India is allowed to use 20 percent of the water allotted to Pakistan under Indus Water Treaty, while India is under obligation not to construct big hydropower projects. However, India has violated the treaty with the construction of dams and hydropower projects such as Kishenganga, Wullar, Sawalkot dam[2] and Baglihar. It is important to note that currently, India does not have the capacity to completely choke Pakistan water while it needs 10-15 years to build the amount of dams for doing so. Executing options other than this means India may risk flooding Jammu and Kashmir and Indian Punjab which produces 20 percent of the grain for India and is called the “breadbasket of India”. India is also prospecting to restart Tulbul water navigation project which has the capability to divert water to a city in Indian-Occupied Kashmir which may affect water flow downstream to Pakistan. Pakistan’s former advisor to PM Mr Sartaj Aziz stated that revocation of IWT will be considered as an act of war and a hostile action against Pakistan.

Kashmiri Militant Narrative: The narrative of Kashmiri militant outfits and their sympathizers in Pakistan may be emboldened. Potential extremist elements may also portray the Indian aggression as its victory and augment its recruitment drive.

Reconsidering Kashmir Policy: It is important to mention that Pakistan may also be inclined to reconsider its Kashmir policy and move into offensive mode. Guerilla warfare may be intensified as a means of asymmetric warfare. Pakistani state will also not shy away from striking back at India through different overt and covert measures.

Russia: Russia may refrain from active involvement in this escalation. India will have to deal with International pressure for triggering a disaster of massive proportions by stopping the flow of water to 210 million people on political grounds.

India’s Neighboring Countries: Nepal and Bangladesh will be insecure due to Indian approach as some voices are also echoing inside India to divert their share of water for India’s consumption. A dangerous precedent will be set through this policy of using water as a weapon.

Recommendations Regarding the Conservation of Water

To efficiently conserve water from different sources, following few recommendations must be introspected, such as:

·         We have to ascertain the total amount of rainfall in millimeters and the duration of rainfall in hours.

1. We need to know about the Agricultural Products which includes the types of crops and water consumption. Furthermore, we have to have the knowledge of horticultural Products (Types of Fruits and Water Consumption) and the kind of forestation (Types of Trees and Water Consumption).
2. Conscious work need to be done river flows such as Upstream (Width, Speed and Flow), Midstream (Width, Speed and Flow) and Downstream (Width Speed and Flow). 
3. By converting some canals from concave to trapezoid to produce 1-2 megawatts of additional power. 
4. We need to have good knowledge of Pre-monsoon season; depth of water level and check history records and Post-monsoon season; depletion of water in 90 days after end of monsoons
5. The water conservation authorities must be well informed about groundwater level such as number of operational wells and number of wells being dug in the vicinity.
6.  Integrated Flood Control Systems needs to be operationalized to mitigate the natural disasters of floods.
7. Prevention of water crisis is not only the responsibility of the Government, but also the general public. Today many countries have adopted policy of harvesting rainwater as a national policy. Equipment for this purpose is not taxable. We need to look beyond our nose and develop vision to save and store rain and flood waters. Flood waters can be controlled and directed underground reservoirs through bio-pores. Rooftops of homes are used as collectors from where water is directed into conduits and poured into surface water tanks using filters to prevent debris from entering the tanks. Once the tanks are filled, the rest of the water is directed into underground permeable tanks. 
8.  By harvesting rainwater we can overcome our deficiency in surface water and help in reducing the decline of groundwater levels, improvement in the availability of ground water for crop development and help in improving the quality by dilution. Furthermore, it will increase horticulture production through improved groundwater.
9. Pakistan is an agricultural country as seventy percent of population is directly associated with provision of water. Out of 80 million hectares (Mha) area in the country, only 29.6 million hectares is suitable for agriculture. 13.3 (Mha) is canal irrigated while 3.5 (Mha) is rain fed. To ensure the food security, it is imperative to manage the water resources efficiently.
10.  Hydrological cycle determines the flow of water through the system. Pakistan’s forest cover has decreased over the decades. According to the UN report, 7000 to 9000 hectares of jungle is removed yearly while the total forest cover has been diminished to 5 percent of the total land mass. Therefore, forest cover must be enhanced with afforestation drives by emulating projects such as billion tree tsunami by the outgoing provincial Government of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa.
11.  Pakistan must change its cropping patterns and aware the farmers about the suitability of crops in certain regions. To implement this idea, one can allocate zones for certain crops which could prove to be appropriate for the terrain while also saves water. Farming methods must be revamped so as to lessen the possibility of the wastage of water during various steps.
12. New housing societies must be obligated to build their own small water reservoirs to save water.
13. Due to decades-old planning processes and hectic approval mechanism as well as execution of the projects, many projects never see the light of the day. Hence, it is highly imperative to seek innovative financing solutions for main storage and hydropower projects.

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[1] https://www.dawn.com/news/1302087

[2] https://thewire.in/117410/sawalkot-dam-india-pakistan/

And Then We Said Good bye Forever!

(Saying good bye is the most painful way of solving a problem)

Story Intro

Sometimes your heart gets broken but you still choose to love people with those broken pieces. The idea of love that transcends your idea of rationality is all too real in this case. Love is ambiguous and puts you in a tragically awkward situation, where heartache is rather inevitable or more “likely” if one chooses the diplomatic connotations.  Here I do not want myself to be portrayed as a cynic regarding love. Love is love. It is not evil. However, in view of my hopeless condition in this matter, surely, a book regarding “how to fail at love through 101 ways” can be penned, which  may own up shamelessly.  I just want to emphasize the consequences of heart wrenching Goodbyes. Those goodbyes which surely does not consist any good in it but only heartache.

“Honeymoon” Period: There comes a time in one’s life when things which lacks attentions and attraction to the person. However, suddenly it makes sense in strange ways. It feels so right. You go with the flow.  This adrenaline gives you energy and hope.  You see the life with hope optimism. It is so clear that you just want to see her face each time you wake up. That person is your world and universe and perhaps beyond, if there is any! It’s not surreal, these are feeling one can’t express. One of the most precious feelings. You never want to compromise on an opportunity to see her face. The more you meet, the more you fall for each other.

The Advanced Stage of Love: You plan for the future. Obviously, you compromise in so many things because you would want to work this out perfectly. Not everything goes your way. Love demands sacrifice. A sacrifice you willingly make if you really do love. It’s selfless “to some extent”.  Planning for the future begins to take shape. This is an advanced stage. You picture your loved one in your life as a partner. A person who will go on transform your bad days into good and see you succeed with a smile on the face. Expectations reach the maximum threshold. That is the time; you realize that her life is closely associated with yours. You consider a sense of belonging to that person. Your future is now mutually attached.

Complications: Everything proceeds according to the script. Then like the textbook drama, action and masala movies, complications start to pile up out of nowhere. At first you discount and ignore such “minor” differences of thoughts as an irritant which will soon shoo away. But like a bad karma, it sticks through. Sorted out for time being but it reappears in new avatars frustrating and sometimes overcoming you to the fullest. You start to get delusional and ask questions like why me? What wrong did i do to deserve this day? Maybe i am not close to God, so he is punishing me? And certain other thoughts like inferiority complexes such as maybe i am not worth it. However, she reassures you. She embraces you tightly in every “misconception” and again like an innocent kid, you just forget it and move on.  However, you start to dream the nightmares of what might happen if the worse scenario materializes, never knowing, its gradually transforming into your real life. Waking up after every nightmare, you show gratitude to heavens that this is just a dream. Incidentally, there are also times when both of you are constrained. Both wanted to meet but cant. Something goes wrong each time. Perhaps, the frustration and sorrow of not being close to one another when it is required invents misunderstandings beyond repair.

Ego Ruins the Relationships: Now, ego enters with a bang and shatters everything in no time. Nothing is left to cherish of all the past. False assumptions take hold. Now things are going exactly towards the nightmares of your dreams.  It’s manifesting into a terrible reality. All of a sudden you break communications. Each of you expects the other to bend knees. No one cares to mend fences and bridges. Accommodate each other. No, never, why can’t he/she approach me on its own.  Then slowly, both begin to associate themselves with “false” sense of disrespect and lack  of sensitivity. Remember, love was selfless. Look, where the fate brought us now.

The Heartbreak: There is a pin drop silence from everywhere. A voice which is so familiar each day vanishes. You long for each message which is not really there even though you search for it madly. Maybe, it’s the internet? No? Okay will wait for tomorrow. How can we stop talking? It’s just a phase! The silence continues days and nights. Why can’t the world stop for once? But no, it will continue, an inconvenient reality. Slowly and gradually you start to feel empty and depressed. All the places you shared time together starts to bite you to the core. You start to fight yourself. So we have come to this? Unbelievable. Then you start giving yourself silly explanations. Perhaps its luck. We were not meant to be. All other relations suffer because you suffer. This is what you can’t afford for a longer period of time, so you unwillingly go with the flow of life. You sail into the heartless ocean of the world. Now, gradually you make peace with the realities. Yes! It happened. I failed. Can’t fight a losing battle anymore. I don’t have anything left to continue.

The Final Good Bye! : Hence, you prepare yourself to say Goodbye that you really don’t want to say. Because Goodbyes are harder for the person who is leaving but it is excruciatingly painful for the person who is left behind. Goodbyes hurt when the story is not finished and the book has been closed forever.  As much as you wanted to stay with the past memories, you drag your soul to move on and perhaps pay the last rites on heart wrenching love that once took you so close to each other but now misunderstandings has ruined it and both feels poles apart. Now somewhere down the line, i am convinced my love has disastrously failed me. The Fairy tales are only written in books and mine is certainly not different. Hence, the last and painful goodbye is uttered while crushing your own self and emotions in the process. This world is an unfair place to live. Most certainly it is!

Zimbabwe's Election 2018 - My Take!

I have a feeling that the Zimbabwe's  establishment might favor Mnagagwa in the elections. This could affect Chamisa's chances. Robert Mugabe the former strongman backs Chamisa as well because Mnagagwa dislodged mugabe in a bloodless coup with the help of Army. Mnagagwa is a ruthless leader and is known as 'crocodile'. However,this is a transformative election in the history of Zimbabwe. I hope it is peaceful and the country emerges stronger from the shadows of previous regimes..

My Vote Goes to!

  Pakistan's General Elections 2018

Followed the narratives of various parties in general elections 2018 campaign. Deliberately delayed my decision to wait for better options. Hence, i concluded that i will vote on 25th July for Imran Khan and PTI because:

·         There exists only one leader on the political landscape of Pakistan who commands loyalty, love and respect from the masses due to his clean image. Has properties and stakes in Pakistan only. However, they are modest in comparison to other wealthy politicians but he declared them all with the evidences of how he attained them in the judiciary. Appreciated!

·         I believe he will undertake empowered foreign policy decisions without any influence from any one, be it internal or external forces. I am looking forward to it.

·         He focused on education, health and police in KP. Well done. The fruits of such much needed reforms will bear fruit in next few years and we are already witnessing positive outcomes. 

·         Reforms in judiciary by fully supporting the pillar of the state through financial and legal backing will allow the institutions to perform effectively through vital judicial reforms and also enhancing its capacity. Pending cases may be swiftly handled in minimum available. I hope PTI will take a cooperative course in regards to state pillars such as judiciary rather than taking it on. This will surely strengthen the institutions and democracy. 

·         Land reforms could also facilitate the local populace. Quite a basic demand and effective steps are awaited. I believe PTI has the vision to undertake them. Records must be digitalized and important documents must be made available online.

·         I have full faith in the expertise of Mr Asad Umar (PTI's shadow finance minister) credentials. With the help of other financial wizards in the country, he could give the right direction to the economy and lessen the debt burden through astute financial policies. I am very much excited to see for the first time, the economy being handled by the right people for the right job. 

·         He talks about cleansing corruption and tirelessly struggled for 22 years. 

·         He promises to rebuild the institutions and give them autonomy to work without enduring political influence. I don’t mind if he employs best minds from abroad or inside Pakistan. I guess he may seek help from skilled Pakistani entrepreneurs abroad to implement some much needed reforms and give the PIA, Steel mills and other with the right direction. Khan! Go ahead we are with you.

·         He has plans for water and power projects. Most importantly, he is eyeing hydel projects that could produce cost effective and cheap power that could be sustained by household consumers and industries

·         Plans for clean drinking water and eradicating malnourishment. I totally endorse and supporting in the hope that promises must be fulfilled

·         Ambitious plans for unemployed youth of the country. This will indirectly have a positive impact on the security of the country because a disenchanted youth could be inclined towards subversive activities

·         Housing revolution is on the cards. In the age of real estate boom, i believe he could achieve the ambitious calculated housing projections. That will emancipate the poor and give them shelter. The most basic necessity

·         I support his vision of local bodies’ empowerment through diverting most funds to lower levels with a robust accountability mechanism. In my view local bodies can bring about the real micro-level change if utilized effectively. Someone who want to direct his energies attains my vote. I believe PTI is that party.

Above all issues are critical in nature. However, as a voter, i have confidence in Khan led PTI's ability to lead the country towards these ideals. Once we start our journey towards these goals, we will see that those goals will get closer than ever. 

Note: If the party fails to deliver on its promises, i will be the first to vote them out of parliament in next general elections. I will be constantly reminding the elected representatives and the leadership to fulfill their promises. No rocket science involved here. We reject mental slavery and personality worship. Those who deliver will stay and others will fizzle out. 

This nation has to vote wisely and then work hard to enhance its prestige nationally and internationally by owning the motherland

 Pakistan Zindabad!

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's offer to the Taliban

I have been analyzing the Afghan conflict  from different perspectives. A perception do exist regarding the return to the 90s era of extreme laws governing the Afghan state. President Ghani's offer to Taliban in current circumstances, seems like a frustrated attempt to finally mend ways with the militant outfit recognizing the fact that Taliban are actively governing almost 40-60 percent of Afghanistan (mostly rural areas).Taliban Control: Main highways and arteries are under their influence. The Afghan state is hampered by infighting amongst ethnic groups and a demoralized army can not sustain the challenges of assymetric warfare from Taliban and ISIS.Opportunity in Disguise: In the back ground of prevailing facts, reconciliation with Taliban is something that could be termed as positive subject to certain conditions. Afghanistan alongwith Pakistan is being discussed as the transit corridor for central asia energy and goods export to south Asia, middle east, Europe and Africa. North South Trade Corridor (NSTC) will be highly effective if stability ensues in Afghanistan. I am optimistic purely on economic grounds.

TAPI, CASA 1000, connecting Herat Kandahar, Quetta, Gwadar and mazar sharif, kabul, Peshawar highways are essential for the land locked state. I am looking at a huge flow of investment coming after the stability of Afghanistan in conenction with energy, trade and transit infrastructure.

Red Lines: Protection of the women rights and constitution must never be compromised. giving political identification to Afghan Taliban can be the best decision in current scenario on many grounds.  I believe if the economics play its trick, gradually everything will fall in its place. Taliban are also transformed and the fact they can never control the cities owing to ISAF presence in Afghanistan heavily influenced their thinking. They will also be willing to move on consciously after learning some hard lessons. 

Better Control on Narco Trade: I am no fan of Taliban but after one verdict of Mullah omer, the world witnessed the narco trade (biggest source of terror financing) ceased to exist across Afghanistan.

United front Against ISIS: Another opportunity arising from a negotiated settled would be the focus on eliminating ISIS (non afghan entity- very important fact) with renewed focus.

Fears and Insecurities: In the hind sight, we can always discuss negative consequences for the Afghan polity in general. It is heartbreaking to see Afghanistan which is not even a shadow of its past. However, baby steps like the above must be taken to avoid total collapse of the society at large. Undermining the Great Game at the Cost of Afghanistan Should be Avoided: The negotiated settlement will shrink space for outsiders (Afghanistan is in the middle of great game Indo- US vs Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and certain central Asian Republics). The US presence is no longer attached to nation building but to counter the interests of the opponent camp. This battle is not favoring Afghanistan.  Realization on Part of Pakistan: I also want to mention the role of Pakistan's military establishment. I feel there seems to be a consensus on supporting Afghan led peace process while playing an assisting role if required rather than influencing the process for its own interest. Pakistan wants a strong, secure and friendly Afghanistan. The only concern remains the creeping influence of India to present a two front situation from Afghan-Pakistan border to destabilize Pakistan which needs to be looked after.