The Taliban Phenomena: A Commentary

Taliban representatives are pictured during the second day of the Intra-Afghan Peace Conference talks in Doha, Qatar, on July 8. KARIM JAAFAR/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Inside Taliban's War Narrative

• Ideology: Why the Taliban (TB) keep replenishing their support with more and more fighters even when they met with huge losses in previous years. According to TB sources, they consider it a holy war. Hence, when a brother gets killed, the other brother proudly takes his place and continue the legacy. Additionally, the TB condemns the current Kabul administration as puppets who work on the orders of the US to impose western Ideals in Afghanistan.
• Decentralized: TB has been a decentralized force after the US attacked Afghanistan in 2001. For example, the central leadership has given a certain amount of autonomy to the local commanders to use the resources in their area of control as to form a shadow government under TB movement's banner. 
• Financing the War: The Taliban fighters do not get regular salaries and often have second jobs. This trend is particularly prevalent amongst the strongholds of TB. However, they are entitled to the war booties. In essence, a strong financial and religious motivation is at the display. Interestingly, there is also a paradoxical interplay of drug trafficking revenues (chiefly opium) to fund their war even though the movement is intrinsically an austere brand of Islamic ideology. Other sources of funding are taxes on goods and traffic, donation drives from middle eastern donors. 
• Posturing on Kabul Administration: It is understood that the Taliban have been fighting against the system which they perceive as an imposition on the cultural, national, and Islamic conscience of Afghanistan. Therefore, the current Afghan administration in Kabul is unacceptable to them.
• Current Fighting Under the Shadow of Peace: One other reason for brutal fighting against the Afghan government could be to intimidate them into giving a larger pie in the future dispensation of an Afghan settlement.
• Why they Stopped Fighting the US? Taliban are often accused of hypocrisy as they keep fighting the Afghan government by killing fellow Afghans but stopped attacking the US. However, the Taliban have been quoted recently by a well known international newspaper as saying that we are giving the Americans a face-saving safe passage " so they dust off their buttocks and depart". Therefore, the Afghan government is not facilitated with such leniency.

Taliban fighters drive on a road in the Khogiani district of Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, on Dec. 11, 2019. LORENZO TUGNOLI/THE WASHINGTON POST

Recruitment Centers

• Mosques and Seminaries: Taliban go to mosques with "Islah and Dawat" manifesto to woo the recruits amongst its ranks.
• Friends and Relatives: The Taliban rank and file work to enlist their friends and relatives, another source of steady fighter supply stream.
• Refugees: The Afghan refugee diaspora in Pakistan is another area where various reports allege the Afghan Taliban to be recruited to fight the Afghan government.
• Social Media: Taliban use social media to deadly use with propaganda videos filled with footage from the alleged catastrophes inflicted by the NATO/ANDSF and Taliban war preparation exercises. it gives powerful optics and entices the young fighters into the fantasies of involved in a heroic religious and national movement on the "right side of the history".
• Comparative Appeal: TB has pitched the idea of leading a pious struggle where its leadership is the most loyal to the cause and country. They cite Mawlawi Haibatullah as an inspiration who sent his son on a suicide bombing mission while the Afghan leaders have their families studying in western countries. Hence, it is powerfully projected that the current leaders of Kabul administration do not have stakes in Afghanistan which is the reason why they are not the best ones to lead the nation. Portrayal of the conflicting narratives such as these are one of the reasons why Taliban ranks and files are growing at a tremendous pace.
• Social Services: Taliban local commanders help give social service delivery to the community such as health, education, and providing arbitration in disputes as a means of cheap and fast justice delivery system. In some areas where TB holds strong, the Afghan government and donors struck an inconvenient but effective deal to pay for the provided social services from the former's pocket. This is deemed as a progressive posture by some quarters and perhaps one of the key support bases for the Taliban movement in rural areas. Though it is pertinent to state that TB still does not allow girls education above 6th standards which is a big turn off for the international donors' agencies.

Getty Images

How the Taliban Movement Grew after 2001

• 9-11 Attacks Followed by the Invasion of Afghanistan: In the aftermath of the 9-11 attacks, the US invaded Afghanistan with full force and toppled the Taliban government in Kabul for failing to extradite Osama Bin Laden, a prime actor in the unfortunate terror attacks. Taliban movement was in disarray and it is said that most of them went back to their homes feeling low and lost. Most of their leaders crossed into Pakistan or ended up in Guantanamo Bay prison. 
• Re-assembly in Safe Havens: Some Afghan and western intellects believe that the Taliban leadership re-assembled itself and coordinated cross border attacks on Afghan soil targetting key Afghan and American officials, citizens, and soldiers. In effect, they used the same textbook as against the Soviet Union but this time against their old underwriter, the US.
• Corruption of Kabul Administration: The Afghan government's corruption was a big turn off to the Afghan public who expected better and effective administration this time around. The public again looked in the direction of TB. TB used it to gain support and sympathy by revitalizing its support base in rural areas.
• The Obama-era Surge in Troops: In 2009, the Obama Administration senses serious issues in Afghanistan, nominated its decorated diplomat, Richard Holbrooke to Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Besides, the troops' level surged to 100,000. Also, Afghan forces reached a staggering 300,000 figure. Police forces were separately trained to be ready to take over from the US. Local militias were supported by the US. All these actions further cemented TB's narrative that the Afghan state will be a puppet who can not say no to its masters. 
• Taliban Penetration Among ANDSF Ranks: Taliban also penetrated the ANDSF ranks as it has the highest desertion rates. Also, these newly recruited soldiers from ANDSF has carried out multiple deadly attacks on Afghan and US forces. 
• Differences Between Kabul and Washington Emerge: Near the end of Obama's first tenure as President, the differences between the Afghan government and the US came out in the open. Hamid Karzai, then President of Afghanistan, was not favored by the Washington establishment for various reasons ranging from incompetency, corruption, and deliberately ignoring his ignominious brother's (Ahmad Wali Karzai) drug trafficking business. Such differences have crept into the Armed forces and possibly undermined the unity of purpose.
• Haqqani Network: One of the factors of the Taliban insurgency was the Haqqani network. Its assimilation in TB made them a formidable force. The movement got deadlier and sophisticated in its attacks.
• Mulla Baradar & Peace Talks: Mulla Baradar (MB) is considered as a moderate amongst Islamist for his diplomatic approach. He spent ten years in a Pakistani prison and was released on the request of the Afghan government previously. He leads the Afghan negotiations with the Americans. Ironically, half the table of Taliban negotiators spent prison time in Guantanamo prison.
• Litmus Test: In the early days of negotiations with Americans, the litmus test of MB's authority over low-level field commanders came in the ceasefire of 2018 for a week. It was independently verified that reduction in violence amounted to 80-85 percent. This lent great credibility to the TB negotiators in Doha. 
• Taliban Interests Converge with Washington on ISIS: The Taliban movement also struck a binary chord with Washington by squeezing the turf on IS in Afghanistan. 
• Al-Qaeda: The US also pushed TB to declare the AlQaeda (AQ) as a terrorist entity but TB were reluctant on this topic. However, they did promise never to let anyone use their soil against US national security. This was considered as a clandestine declaration on disbanding its association with AQ. 
• Obstacles for Peace in Future Afghanistan: Some problems can probably let the country slip down the same path of civil war as followed up in the '90s if the Taliban ranks fail to show any discipline by dis-obeying the central leadership. It is said that the Taliban younger generation hardly share any history of anti-soviet struggle (the ranks were Mujahideen in those days and TB phenomena followed later) against old guards. A balancing act will be required to assemble all of them into one unit. However, TB leadership dismisses any such assertions as baseless and insists that TB has a robust disciplinary council that punishes the dissidents.
• Ghosts of the Past: Some of the leaders from the Northern Alliance and Kabul Administration are unofficially persona non grata (such as Uzbek warlord General Dostum who oversaw TB massacre at Dasht-e-leli) in TB lexicon. In future dispensation or compromise with TB, the conflict may quickly arise when both see eyeball to eyeball across the table running the same country which was once contested amongst them. Hence, the ghosts of the past may haunt the future too.

Sources: 

1. Mujib Mashal NYT
2. Our Man: Richard Holbrooke and the End of the American Century by George Packer
3. NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/opinion/14tue2.html)
4. National Geographics Documentary (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGplN5BzhG0)